Have a look at the latest numbers from Hypermind’s prediction market on the likelihood of Greece leaving the euro in 2015.
In my view this likely is also the kind of probability that the rest of the financial markets put on Grexit in 2015 and given the relatively calm reaction in the European markets to recent developments then this a fairly good indication that we would not face an European financial armageddon if Greece were to leave the euro area.
In this regard it is also worthwhile noticing that Hypermind also runs a prediction market for euro zone GDP growth in 2015 and if anything the expectations for GDP growth have inched up slightly recently (to around 1.5% around 1.4% a month ago). Said in another way there seems to be little correlation between the increased likelihood of Grexit and euro zone growth expectations.
HT Maxime Cartan
